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Disturbance 90L – Guidance Messages 

Disturbance Guidance Message 1
The Hurricane Network New York NY        AL902020
500 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020

This product covers the latest information on Invest (Disturbance) 
90L, which is currently located over the Straits of Florida. 

.SUMMARY OF LATEST INFORMATION... 
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), Disturbance 90L was located at 23.7 north 
latitude and 81.2 west longitude. Surface observations and satellite 
data indicates sustained winds near 30 kt and an estimated central 
pressure of 1013 mb. 

.SYNOPSIS...
The disturbance located over the Straits of Florida is in the initial 
stages of becoming better organized with banding features starting 
to form meaning a low pressure center is starting to take shape. 
Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable and this 
disturbance is expected to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone 
within the next day or two. 

.SATELLITE DISCUSSION...
An earlier ASCAT pass indicates the system lacks a center of 
circulation and remains an open trough. The scatterometer data shows 
in the coldest cloud tops wind vectors of near 30 to 35 kt. There 
are likely higher gusts occurring over waters. 

.MODEL DISCUSSION... 

The 18z model suite remain in good agreement with the overall track 
of the disturbance. The disturbance will likely continue the move 
north-northeastward before making a sharp northeast turn due to an 
approaching frontal system located over the eastern United States. 
The system is then forecast to accelerate north of Bermuda by day 4. 

Intensity wise, the system will slowly intensify over days 1 to 3 
due to some upper-level winds near the Bahamas. Once becoming 
attached to the frontal system, the system will begin to intensify 
baroclinically and could reach a peak strength around 50 kt. We will 
have a more defined model guidance on the intensity by 0z. 

.HAZARDS...
Key messages for Disturbance 90L are available on the web at 
https://thehurricanenet.com/keymsg.png

Heavy rainfall and gusts near tropical-storm-force will continue for 
portions of southern Florida and the Bahamas through this weekend. 
Rainfall estimates for southern Florida could exceed 2 inches, high 
amounts towards 2 inches are possible in localized areas. In the 
Bahamas, rainfall amounts could exceed 4 inches with rainfall 
amounts near 6 inches in some areas. 

Marine Hazards: Gale warnings are currently in effect for the waters 
off southern Florida and the Straits of Florida. Increased surf is 
possible for the south shore of Florida. 

For additional information on hazards, refer to the National Weather 
Service on the web at weather.gov

.HURRICANE HUNTER OUTLOOK...
A US Airforce Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
this disturbance on Friday afternoon, resources permitting. 

&&

The next guidance message on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT. 

$$ 
Forecaster Latteri/Anderson


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