Tropical Depression TWELVE – Forecast Discussion 

AL122022 2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST DISCUSSION 2
THE HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 4 2022

There has been little organization change in Twelve since the 0030
UTC special advisory. Vertical shear continues to increase around
the depression which is limiting any chance of further
intensification. Satellite fixes continue to yield T2.0/30kt in
Dvorak intensity estimates, so no changes has been made to the
intensity this advisory.

The depression continues to move around an upper-level high pressure
system, the general motion is now north-northwestward at around 8
kt. The depression will continue to be steered around the
upper-level high through the next 36 hr. The depression after that
will likely begin to accelerate around an upper-level low prior to
opening up as a wave of low pressure. The track remains untouched
since the last advisory.

As mentioned, the increasing shear is limiting the depression's
attempts at intensifying. Based on the increasing shear, the
depression is no longer expected to become a tropical storm within
the forecast period. The depression is forecast to open into a
tropical wave or trough by day 3 in the forecast period and therefor
dissipate.


Forecaster Ryan



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