Tropical Depression TWELVE – Forecast Discussion
AL122022 2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST DISCUSSION 2 THE HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 4 2022 There has been little organization change in Twelve since the 0030 UTC special advisory. Vertical shear continues to increase around the depression which is limiting any chance of further intensification. Satellite fixes continue to yield T2.0/30kt in Dvorak intensity estimates, so no changes has been made to the intensity this advisory. The depression continues to move around an upper-level high pressure system, the general motion is now north-northwestward at around 8 kt. The depression will continue to be steered around the upper-level high through the next 36 hr. The depression after that will likely begin to accelerate around an upper-level low prior to opening up as a wave of low pressure. The track remains untouched since the last advisory. As mentioned, the increasing shear is limiting the depression's attempts at intensifying. Based on the increasing shear, the depression is no longer expected to become a tropical storm within the forecast period. The depression is forecast to open into a tropical wave or trough by day 3 in the forecast period and therefor dissipate. Forecaster Ryan
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