Hurricane IAN – Forecaster Discussion
AL092022 25 HURRICANE IAN FORECAST DISCUSSION 25 THE HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2022 Remarkably, Ian continues to slowly intensify over the warm current of the gulf stream. An earlier pass by an Air Force aircraft indicates pressures are steadily dropping in Ian, with the newer pass at the time of this advisory issuance yielding a potential pressure of 984-985 mb. Until verification via dropsonde is complete, 986 mb will remain the current advisory pressure. The same USAF aircraft continues to find around 72 kt winds within the strongest convection of Ian, so the 70 kt initial intensity is also held for this advisory package. Ian is feeling the affects of a mid-level trough situated over the southeastern United States and current satellite imagery makes it seem like Ian is attempting to transition into a hybrid storm. Further intensification of Ian is possible through landfall on Friday afternoon, it is possible Ian could approach, at max, category two status prior to landfall due to it riding over the gulf stream as well as baroclinic forcing. Hurricane Ian is expected to make landfall Friday afternoon between Charleston and Myrtle Beach. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the South Carolina coast overnight into Friday morning prior to the landfall of Hurricane Ian. All residents along those areas should rush efforts to protect life and property to immediate completion. 2. Dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is possible along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina beginning early Friday. Storm surge levels could reach up to 7 feet along most of the South Carolina coast. 3. Tropical storm conditions and storm surge is ongoing across portions of the lower Georgia coast and northeastern Florida. Conditions should begin to improve early Friday morning for these areas. Forecaster Latteri
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