Hurricane IAN – Forecaster Discussion 

AL092022 25

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST DISCUSSION 25
THE HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2022

Remarkably, Ian continues to slowly intensify over the warm current
of the gulf stream. An earlier pass by an Air Force aircraft
indicates pressures are steadily dropping in Ian, with the newer
pass at the time of this advisory issuance yielding a potential
pressure of 984-985 mb. Until verification via dropsonde is
complete, 986 mb will remain the current advisory pressure. The same
USAF aircraft continues to find around 72 kt winds within the
strongest convection of Ian, so the 70 kt initial intensity is also
held for this advisory package.

Ian is feeling the affects of a mid-level trough situated over the
southeastern United States and current satellite imagery makes it
seem like Ian is attempting to transition into a hybrid storm.
Further intensification of Ian is possible through landfall on
Friday afternoon, it is possible Ian could approach, at max,
category two status prior to landfall due to it riding over the gulf
stream as well as baroclinic forcing.

Hurricane Ian is expected to make landfall Friday afternoon between
Charleston and Myrtle Beach.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the South
Carolina coast overnight into Friday morning prior to the landfall
of Hurricane Ian. All residents along those areas should rush
efforts to protect life and property to immediate completion.

2. Dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is possible along the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina beginning early Friday. Storm
surge levels could reach up to 7 feet along most of the South
Carolina coast.

3. Tropical storm conditions and storm surge is ongoing across
portions of the lower Georgia coast and northeastern Florida.
Conditions should begin to improve early Friday morning for these
areas.

Forecaster Latteri



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