Hurricane IDALIA – Forecast Discussions 

AL102023 13

HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST DISCUSSION 13
THE HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY
500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2023

Satellite imagery and NOAA Weather Radar velocity imagery remains
rather impressive with strong convective activity over the
northwestern eyewall. Satellite imagery shows burst of cold cloud
tops around -85 to -90 degrees C.  It does seem that an eyewall
replacement cycle is about to begin which could briefly limit
intensification of the hurricane and expand the wind field further
outward. Regardless, Idalia will be a catastrophic hurricane when
making landfall later this morning along the Big Bend of Florida. 
The initial advisory intensity for Idalia is set at 115 kt. 

Idalia has finally made the directional change towards the
north-northeast at about 15 kt. This general motion and forward
speed is expected to continue through landfall before a change
towards the northeast and an increase in forward motion this
evening along mid-level trough. After landfall by day 2, Idalia will
move off the coast of the Carolinas and move away from land. By day
3, it is possible that Idalia could make a turn towards the
southeast or move out to sea. Since the last advisory, many of the
models have moved away from the looping scenario as mentioned
previously.

As mentioned, Idalia remains an impressive low-end category four
hurricane. Intensification is expected to continue through landfall
within the next 4 to 6 hours. Idalia is encountering some dry air
and some westerly shear but does not seem the be completed phased by
these unconducive attributes.


Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge is expected along
the Big Bend of Florida. The National Hurricane Center is
forecasting a 12 to 16 foot storm surge event from Jefferson County
to Yankeetown. Life-threatening storm surge is expected within the
Storm Surge Warning areas in Florida today.

2. Destructive and potentially catastrophic major hurricane winds
are expected to come inland this morning when Idalia makes landfall
somewhere within the Big Bend of Florida. Tropical storm conditions
are well underway across much of the Gulf coast of Florida, this is
making evacuations impossible. It is recommended to shelter in place
inside away from windows as hurricane conditions are expected to
onset soon.

3. Hurricane conditions, tropical storm conditions, and dangerous
storm surge are expected to reach portions of the Georgia and South
Carolina coast by later this evening. Interests in these areas should
continue to monitor the progress of Idalia closely and listen to
local officials.

Forecaster Ryan/Latteri



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