ONE – Public Advisories
AL012020 1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST DISCUSSION 1
THE HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2020
Surface observations and earlier data from a USAF Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicates the area of disturbed weather THN has been
tracked for the past week has developed a well-defined center with
convection persisting near the center. With these factors, we are
initiating advisories on the first tropical depression of the
season. Originally, the system was going to be classified as a
subtropical depression but scatterometer data indicates the maximum
wind radius is within the persistent deeper convection near the
center of circulation. The intensity for this advisory is set on 30
kt.
The general motion of the depression is 20 degrees at 11 knots. This
motion is forecast to continue for the next day as the system moves
just off the coast of Florida. After day 2, the forecast becomes
highly uncertain with dynamic models splitting. Two troughs located
over the Central Plains are expected to move towards the system
early next week, depending on the strength of these troughs and the
exact timing the system could approach closer to North Carolina or
move east of the current track. Our forecast track lies between the
GFS and HWRF solutions.
Cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures will limit any
significant intensification of the depression. Over the next two
days or so, the depression is expected to strengthen to near peak
intensity at 50 kt. The depression is expected to become a tropical
storm either tonight or early Sunday.
Key messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall is possible for
portions of the North Carolina coast on Monday.
2. Heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are expected to continue
for portions of the Florida coast and the Bahamas through the next
day or so.
3. Interests in the mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress
of this depression. It is too early to determine if any impacts will
move northward of North Carolina.
Forecaster Ryan
