14:18:56 UTC |Wednesday, September 30, 2020
You are here: Home » TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE – Forecast Discussion

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE – Forecast Discussion

ONE – Public Advisories

AL012020 1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST DISCUSSION 1
THE HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY 
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2020

Surface observations and earlier data from a USAF Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft indicates the area of disturbed weather THN has been 
tracked for the past week has developed a well-defined center with 
convection persisting near the center. With these factors, we are 
initiating advisories on the first tropical depression of the 
season. Originally, the system was going to be classified as a 
subtropical depression but scatterometer data indicates the maximum 
wind radius is within the persistent deeper convection near the 
center of circulation. The intensity for this advisory is set on 30 
kt. 

The general motion of the depression is 20 degrees at 11 knots. This 
motion is forecast to continue for the next day as the system moves 
just off the coast of Florida. After day 2, the forecast becomes 
highly uncertain with dynamic models splitting. Two troughs located 
over the Central Plains are expected to move towards the system 
early next week, depending on the strength of these troughs and the 
exact timing the system could approach closer to North Carolina or 
move east of the current track. Our forecast track lies between the 
GFS and HWRF solutions. 

Cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures will limit any 
significant intensification of the depression. Over the next two 
days or so, the depression is expected to strengthen to near peak 
intensity at 50 kt. The depression is expected to become a tropical 
storm either tonight or early Sunday.

Key messages: 

1. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall is possible for 
portions of the North Carolina coast on Monday. 

2. Heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are expected to continue 
for portions of the Florida coast and the Bahamas through the next 
day or so. 

3. Interests in the mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress 
of this depression. It is too early to determine if any impacts will 
move northward of North Carolina. 

Forecaster Ryan