Hurricane LANE Forecast Discussions
Hurricane Lane – Public Advisories
HURRICANE LANE CYCLONE DISCUSSION 1
THN CENTRAL PACIFIC CENTER HILO HI
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 21 2018
Air force Hurricane Hunters continue to investigate severe Hurricane
Lane. Lane is a well-defined hurricane with a 20NM eye feature.
Based of the latest information from the reconnaissance plane Lane
intensified earlier this morning to near-category five strength with
winds of 135 kt (155 mph) and gusts up to 165 kt (190 mph) with a
central pressure of 941 mb. With likely no changes since the latest
aircraft fix, the intensity remains at 135 kt.
The general motion of Lane is estimated by aircraft data at 285/8kt,
this motion is expected to continue for the next six hours before
moving northwestward around a ridge with low steering currents.
Thereafter, there is a possibility of a weakness which will allow
Lane to move northward on Thursday towards the main Hawaiian
Islands. Early model guidance for this advisory cycle indicates the
system could come very close or make landfall along the Big Island
on Thursday. The latest forecast track is in guidance of the GFS and
Lane is currently in an area of low-shear and warn water
temperatures, this could support the life-span of Lane through day 3
before Lane moves into an area of strong vertical shear associated
with a upper-level trough. There is a slight chance Lane could
intensify further into a category five hurricane tonight.
1. It is too early to determine if Lane will make a direct landfall
on the main Hawaiian Islands. Users should remember, impacts from a
large hurricane can be felt miles away from the center of
circulation. Residents and visitors in Hawaii should prepare to
protect life and property.
2. Even though Lane might stay off-shore, hurricane-force winds are
possible beginning on Thursday with life-threatening flash flooding
from heavy rains associated with Lane. A Hurricane Watch is in
effect for the Big Island and Maui, additional watches will be