Tropical Storm Beta – Forecast Discussions 

AL222020 7

TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST DISCUSSION 7
THE HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY 
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2020

Satellite imagery shows that Beta is going through a period of brief 
disorganization with the deeper convection collapsing. The USAF 
Hurricane Hunter investigating Beta indicates the maximum winds 
remain the same so we are keeping the advisory intensity at 50 kt 
for this cycle. 

The general motion of Beta remains highly uncertain. Early this 
evening, Beta was stationary based on USAF hurricane aircraft fixes 
but now is moving slightly to the north-northeast at a snail's pace. 
An area of high pressure is expected to slide into the Southern 
Plains tonight and should increase the speed of Beta as well as 
allow the cyclone to move westward. Because of the slow movement, 
Beta is expected to reach the coast of Texas on Monday evening into 
Tuesday morning. This track forecast again has high uncertain but is 
using a blend of the ECMWF and HWRF. 

As mentioned, the convection around Beta's center has decreased over 
the last several hours but it seems like the tropical storm remains 
steady around 50 kt. Beta is in a very dry environment due to a 
frontal zone to the north of the tropical storm and vertical shear 
is increasing. Hurricane watches remain in effect because some 
intensification into a hurricane remains possible over the next day 
or two. The intensity forecast is close to the TVCI multi-model 
consensus. 


Key messages: 

1. Potentially dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding is 
possible along much of the Louisiana coast into southeastern Texas 
through the next several days. Rainfall amounts could reach as high 
as 20 inches. This rainfall could also create areal river flooding, 
especially in tidal rivers. 

2. Life-threatening storm surge is expected through Tuesday along 
the Storm Surge Warning area in Texas and Louisiana. Interests in 
the Storm Surge Warning area should continue to follow any  
orders or advice from local emergency management officials. 

3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the 
western Louisiana coast and expected to spread into the warning area 
in Texas on Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible along the 
Hurricane Watch area in south-central Texas. Tropical storm 
conditions are possible in the watch area along the central 
Louisiana coast tonight and the southern Texas coast on Monday.

Forecaster Latteri/Anderson



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