Tropical Storm Beta – Forecast Discussions
BETA – Public Advisories
TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST DISCUSSION 7
THE HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2020
Satellite imagery shows that Beta is going through a period of brief
disorganization with the deeper convection collapsing. The USAF
Hurricane Hunter investigating Beta indicates the maximum winds
remain the same so we are keeping the advisory intensity at 50 kt
for this cycle.
The general motion of Beta remains highly uncertain. Early this
evening, Beta was stationary based on USAF hurricane aircraft fixes
but now is moving slightly to the north-northeast at a snail's pace.
An area of high pressure is expected to slide into the Southern
Plains tonight and should increase the speed of Beta as well as
allow the cyclone to move westward. Because of the slow movement,
Beta is expected to reach the coast of Texas on Monday evening into
Tuesday morning. This track forecast again has high uncertain but is
using a blend of the ECMWF and HWRF.
As mentioned, the convection around Beta's center has decreased over
the last several hours but it seems like the tropical storm remains
steady around 50 kt. Beta is in a very dry environment due to a
frontal zone to the north of the tropical storm and vertical shear
is increasing. Hurricane watches remain in effect because some
intensification into a hurricane remains possible over the next day
or two. The intensity forecast is close to the TVCI multi-model
1. Potentially dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding is
possible along much of the Louisiana coast into southeastern Texas
through the next several days. Rainfall amounts could reach as high
as 20 inches. This rainfall could also create areal river flooding,
especially in tidal rivers.
2. Life-threatening storm surge is expected through Tuesday along
the Storm Surge Warning area in Texas and Louisiana. Interests in
the Storm Surge Warning area should continue to follow any
orders or advice from local emergency management officials.
3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the
western Louisiana coast and expected to spread into the warning area
in Texas on Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible along the
Hurricane Watch area in south-central Texas. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area along the central
Louisiana coast tonight and the southern Texas coast on Monday.