Tropical Storm Beta – Forecast Discussions
AL222020 7 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST DISCUSSION 7 THE HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2020 Satellite imagery shows that Beta is going through a period of brief disorganization with the deeper convection collapsing. The USAF Hurricane Hunter investigating Beta indicates the maximum winds remain the same so we are keeping the advisory intensity at 50 kt for this cycle. The general motion of Beta remains highly uncertain. Early this evening, Beta was stationary based on USAF hurricane aircraft fixes but now is moving slightly to the north-northeast at a snail's pace. An area of high pressure is expected to slide into the Southern Plains tonight and should increase the speed of Beta as well as allow the cyclone to move westward. Because of the slow movement, Beta is expected to reach the coast of Texas on Monday evening into Tuesday morning. This track forecast again has high uncertain but is using a blend of the ECMWF and HWRF. As mentioned, the convection around Beta's center has decreased over the last several hours but it seems like the tropical storm remains steady around 50 kt. Beta is in a very dry environment due to a frontal zone to the north of the tropical storm and vertical shear is increasing. Hurricane watches remain in effect because some intensification into a hurricane remains possible over the next day or two. The intensity forecast is close to the TVCI multi-model consensus. Key messages: 1. Potentially dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding is possible along much of the Louisiana coast into southeastern Texas through the next several days. Rainfall amounts could reach as high as 20 inches. This rainfall could also create areal river flooding, especially in tidal rivers. 2. Life-threatening storm surge is expected through Tuesday along the Storm Surge Warning area in Texas and Louisiana. Interests in the Storm Surge Warning area should continue to follow any orders or advice from local emergency management officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the western Louisiana coast and expected to spread into the warning area in Texas on Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible along the Hurricane Watch area in south-central Texas. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the central Louisiana coast tonight and the southern Texas coast on Monday. Forecaster Latteri/Anderson
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