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Tropical Storm FAY – Forecast Discussions 

FAY – Public Advisories

AL062020 1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST DISCUSSION 1
THE HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY 
500 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2020

USAF Hurricane Hunter aircraft data as well as surface observations 
indicate that the low off the coast of North Carolina has gained 
just enough of convection and a closed circulation to now be 
classified as a tropical storm with a starting intensity of 40 kt / 
45 mph. Additional intensification of Tropical Storm Fay is possible 
through the next day as the cyclone is over the Gulf Stream waters 
and within a narrow area of light wind shear. Thereafter, the storm 
will begin to move closer to the coast and limit intensification 
prior to moving inland. 

The general motion of Fay is around 360/5 to 6kt, it is currently 
low confidence as the low just reformed further to the east. The 
tropical storm is currently between an upper-level ridge and will 
move move along that ridge. By day 2, the cyclone could move further 
off the coast near Long Island due to an approaching trough. 
However, the confidence in the track is moderate due to the position 
of the reformed low. Based on this data though, NHC has issued a 
Tropical Storm Warning for north of the current position into 
southern New England. 

Users should not focus on the exact cone track of Fay as heavy 
rainfall and wind impacts will be felt far from the center of the 
tropical storm. 

Key messages: 

1. Tropical storm conditions are forecast for the Southern NJ, NYC, 
Long Island, and southern New England regions by Friday. Tropical-
storm-force winds could reach as high as 50 mph with stronger gusts. 

2. Tropical Storm Fay is forecast to produce rainfall amounts 
near 5 inches for most of the U.S. East Coast. Heavier rainfall 
amounts will be felt over portions of southern New England. Flash 
flooding is possible due to these rainfall totals. 

Forecaster Latteri



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