Tropical Storm FAY – Forecast Discussions
FAY – Public Advisories
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST DISCUSSION 1
THE HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY
500 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2020
USAF Hurricane Hunter aircraft data as well as surface observations
indicate that the low off the coast of North Carolina has gained
just enough of convection and a closed circulation to now be
classified as a tropical storm with a starting intensity of 40 kt /
45 mph. Additional intensification of Tropical Storm Fay is possible
through the next day as the cyclone is over the Gulf Stream waters
and within a narrow area of light wind shear. Thereafter, the storm
will begin to move closer to the coast and limit intensification
prior to moving inland.
The general motion of Fay is around 360/5 to 6kt, it is currently
low confidence as the low just reformed further to the east. The
tropical storm is currently between an upper-level ridge and will
move move along that ridge. By day 2, the cyclone could move further
off the coast near Long Island due to an approaching trough.
However, the confidence in the track is moderate due to the position
of the reformed low. Based on this data though, NHC has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for north of the current position into
southern New England.
Users should not focus on the exact cone track of Fay as heavy
rainfall and wind impacts will be felt far from the center of the
1. Tropical storm conditions are forecast for the Southern NJ, NYC,
Long Island, and southern New England regions by Friday. Tropical-
storm-force winds could reach as high as 50 mph with stronger gusts.
2. Tropical Storm Fay is forecast to produce rainfall amounts
near 5 inches for most of the U.S. East Coast. Heavier rainfall
amounts will be felt over portions of southern New England. Flash
flooding is possible due to these rainfall totals.