TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL – Forecast Discussion 

AL032020 26

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST DISCUSSION 26
THE HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY 
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

The latest surface observations indicate the disorganized center of 
circulation of Cristobal is making landfall along the Mississippi 
Delta. Scatterometer data shows that Cristobal has two low-level 
centers at this point with the primary low just off-shore with the 
secondary low just inland over Louisiana. The low off the coast of 
the Mississippi Delta is forecast to become the primary low soon and 
thus landfall has not technically occurred yet but will soon. Based 
on surface observations and NWS Doppler Radar data, the intensity 
for this cycle is continued to be set at 45 kt (50 mph). 

Because of the dual low-level circulations, the motion and speed of 
Cristobal remain highly uncertain. However, the estimated motion is 
somewhere around 355 degrees at 6 kt. Using the consensus aids, 
Cristobal will begin moving northwest to north-northwest in the next 
24 hours and begin accelerating through the central United States. 
By day 4, Cristobal is forecast to become absorbed by an 
extratropical cyclone over the Northern Plains. This forecast 
remains untouched and lies between the objective consensus aids. 

Slight intensification, if any, will occur soon as the landfall of 
Cristobal is expected within the next three hours. However, higher 
gusts of near 70 mph is possible in the stronger bands. Once 
landfall occurs, the cyclone will begin to decay and gradually 
weaken. Thereafter when approaching the extratropical low, the 
remnants of Cristobal will begin to slightly intensify when becoming 
absorbed. 

An experimental forecast track is now on the web at 
https://thehurricanenet.com/data/exp-tracks/AL032020.png

Key messages: 

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected outside of the New 
Orleans levee system. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Mouth 
of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi meaning that 
life-threatening storm surge is expected within the next 48 hours. A 
Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the rest of Louisiana including 
the City of New Orleans, meaning life-threatening storm surge is 
possible. Interests in these areas should monitor local media for 
potential evacuations. 

2. Intense rainfall is continuing across most of the central and 
eastern Gulf coast. This rainfall will begin to push northward into 
the Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains over the next week. 
This rainfall could create dangerous flash flooding and areal river 
flooding. 

3. Tropical storm conditions will continue to move into the Gulf 
coast from Louisiana to portions of the Florida panhandle through 
tonight. These winds extend far eastward from the central of 
Cristobal. 

Forecaster Latteri



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