TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL – Forecast Discussion
AL032020 26 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST DISCUSSION 26 THE HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020 The latest surface observations indicate the disorganized center of circulation of Cristobal is making landfall along the Mississippi Delta. Scatterometer data shows that Cristobal has two low-level centers at this point with the primary low just off-shore with the secondary low just inland over Louisiana. The low off the coast of the Mississippi Delta is forecast to become the primary low soon and thus landfall has not technically occurred yet but will soon. Based on surface observations and NWS Doppler Radar data, the intensity for this cycle is continued to be set at 45 kt (50 mph). Because of the dual low-level circulations, the motion and speed of Cristobal remain highly uncertain. However, the estimated motion is somewhere around 355 degrees at 6 kt. Using the consensus aids, Cristobal will begin moving northwest to north-northwest in the next 24 hours and begin accelerating through the central United States. By day 4, Cristobal is forecast to become absorbed by an extratropical cyclone over the Northern Plains. This forecast remains untouched and lies between the objective consensus aids. Slight intensification, if any, will occur soon as the landfall of Cristobal is expected within the next three hours. However, higher gusts of near 70 mph is possible in the stronger bands. Once landfall occurs, the cyclone will begin to decay and gradually weaken. Thereafter when approaching the extratropical low, the remnants of Cristobal will begin to slightly intensify when becoming absorbed. An experimental forecast track is now on the web at https://thehurricanenet.com/data/exp-tracks/AL032020.png Key messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected outside of the New Orleans levee system. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi meaning that life-threatening storm surge is expected within the next 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the rest of Louisiana including the City of New Orleans, meaning life-threatening storm surge is possible. Interests in these areas should monitor local media for potential evacuations. 2. Intense rainfall is continuing across most of the central and eastern Gulf coast. This rainfall will begin to push northward into the Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains over the next week. This rainfall could create dangerous flash flooding and areal river flooding. 3. Tropical storm conditions will continue to move into the Gulf coast from Louisiana to portions of the Florida panhandle through tonight. These winds extend far eastward from the central of Cristobal. Forecaster Latteri
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