TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL – Forecast Discussion
CRISTOBAL- Public Advisories
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE SPECIAL FORECAST DISCUSSION 1
THE HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY
830 PM AST TUE OCT 4 2022
Recent scatterometer data indicates that the disturbance located
near the Cape Verde Islands has a well-defined circulation and
convection remains to fire up near the center. Based on this data,
The Hurricane Network is initiating advisories on Tropical Depression
Twelve. Satellite fixes from THN and SAB yield T2.0/CI 2.0, so
initial advisory intensity is set at 30 kt.
The general motion of the cyclone is 315/12kt, this general motion
is forecast to continue through Wednesday until the cyclone begins
to accelerate towards the west-northwest around an upper-level low
on Wednesday evening. The initial forecast track for THN is close to
the HCCA consensus aids.
The cyclone remains in an area of strong vertical shear, satellite
intensity of this shear measured values approaching 30 kt around
1800 UTC. The depression is forecast to briefly intensify to a
tropical storm before degrading into an open tropical wave or low-
level trough on Thursday.