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Hurricane MIRIAM Forecast Discussions 

Hurricane Miriam – Public Advisories

EP152018 17

BULLETIN 
HURRICANE MIRIAM CYCLONE DISCUSSION 17
THN CENTRAL PACIFIC CENTER HILO HI
500 PM HST WED AUG 29 2018 

The overall structure of Miriam has remained the same since the last 
advisory, the only change is the burst of convection over the past 
two hours near the low-level center. I will keep Miriam at 65 kt for 
this advisory, but she could be a bit stronger because of the latest 
burst of convection. 

The cyclone is moving very slow still due to little steering 
currents in the Central Pacific at the moment, this is forecast to 
change as Miriam interacts with a subtropical ridge and begins to 
move towards an upper-level trough towards the northwest on 
Saturday. The general motion has slowed down to 280/6kt, this motion 
will continue through Friday. This forecast was created using the 
GFS and TVCN. 

As previously mentioned, a burst of convection has persist for the 
past couple hours since the last satellite fix so Miriam could be 
stronger than currently estimated. Atmospheric conditions will allow 
for additional intensification for the next 12 hours until southerly 
sheer increases near the cyclone. Miriam is now forecast to become a 
tropical storm late Friday evening or early Saturday morning. 
Afterwards, Miriam is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical 
low within 84 hr. 

Forecaster Romano

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