Hurricane MIRIAM Forecast Discussions
Hurricane Miriam – Public Advisories
HURRICANE MIRIAM CYCLONE DISCUSSION 17
THN CENTRAL PACIFIC CENTER HILO HI
500 PM HST WED AUG 29 2018
The overall structure of Miriam has remained the same since the last
advisory, the only change is the burst of convection over the past
two hours near the low-level center. I will keep Miriam at 65 kt for
this advisory, but she could be a bit stronger because of the latest
burst of convection.
The cyclone is moving very slow still due to little steering
currents in the Central Pacific at the moment, this is forecast to
change as Miriam interacts with a subtropical ridge and begins to
move towards an upper-level trough towards the northwest on
Saturday. The general motion has slowed down to 280/6kt, this motion
will continue through Friday. This forecast was created using the
GFS and TVCN.
As previously mentioned, a burst of convection has persist for the
past couple hours since the last satellite fix so Miriam could be
stronger than currently estimated. Atmospheric conditions will allow
for additional intensification for the next 12 hours until southerly
sheer increases near the cyclone. Miriam is now forecast to become a
tropical storm late Friday evening or early Saturday morning.
Afterwards, Miriam is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical
low within 84 hr.