04:37:53 UTC | 12:37:53 Eastern Time |Monday, March 25, 2019
You are here: Home » Guidance Messages » Disturbance 95L – Guidance Messages
  • Get Informed:

Disturbance 95L – Guidance Messages 

Disturbance Guidance Message 2
The Hurricane Network New York NY        AL952018 
1200 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

At 1200 AM EDT (0500 UTC), Disturbance 95L is currently located at 
10.4N and 38.5W with sustained winds at 30 kts and a central 
pressure estimated at 1009 mb. 

Disturbance 95L continues to become better organized with the 
strongest area of convection located right near the apparent low-
level center of the system. Dry air and vertical wind shear is 
limiting the system from becoming significantly organized. 

Satellite data from ASCAT indicates a low-level center is evident 
within the system, however it is very weak. A satellite fix from SAB 
indicates the system is still yet to be classified as a tropical 
cyclone. If trends continue, a tropical cyclone could form as early 
as this afternoon. 

The recent 18z model guidance is in pretty good agreement through 
the entire forecast cycle in terms of track guidance which steers 
the storm around a high pressure system to the north of the system 
and moves the system towards the west-northwest. The track guidance 
brings disturbed weather over the Windward Islands, Virgin Islands, 
and Puerto Rico by 120 hr. In terms of intensity guidance, the 
envelope takes the system towards tropical storm status within 72 
hr. 

The limited factors of this system obtaining tropical cyclone status 
would be the dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer and 
increasing vertical shear near the Lesser Antilles. SHIPS guidance 
indicates shear by day 4 could approach 35 to 40 kt. 

Interests in the Lesser Antilles and Windward Islands should monitor 
the progress of this system. Modeling indicates some heavy rainfall 
could be possible along the Lesser Antilles island chain next week. 
It is still too early to determine the exact strength and impact of 
the system when it nears the Windwards. 

NHC is noting a possible low-level reconnaissance mission on Friday. 

Repeating the current position as of 1200 AM EDT (0500 UTC), 
Disturbance 95L is currently located at 10.4N and 38.5W with 
sustained winds at 30 kts and a central pressure estimated at 1009 
mb. 

Unless advisories are initiated, the next Disturbance Guidance 
Message will be issued around 500 AM EDT.   

Forecaster Latteri

Comments

comments