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Tropical Storm Florence – Forecast Discussions 

Florence – Public Advisories

AL062018 40

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE CYCLONE DISCUSSION 40
HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2018

Environmental conditions are improving along the path of Florence as 
she moves out of the dry air that have been inhabiting development 
over the last day or so. There has been a recent burst of convection 
along the center of circulation of the tropical storm which leads us 
to believe Florence is once again about to be a hurricane, which 
could happen at any moment now. The intensity remains the same since 
the last advisory at 60 kt. 

The general motion of Florence remains considerably slow at 270/5kt. 
Florence is embedded between two high pressure systems which is 
caused the steering currents to collapse. By all indications, 
Florence is expected to move along a developing ridge towards the 
west-northwest and then northwest with an increase in forward speed. 
The ridge is responsible for the forecast track aiming Florence 
right into the southeastern United States later this upcoming week. 
The guidance for Florence seems to have gotten into better agreement 
since 12Z and the forecast track lies between the GFS and FSSE. 

As mentioned, Florence is expected to become a hurricane at any 
moment overnight as it moves out of the hostile environment which 
originally weakened the cyclone. Satellite data indicates Florence 
is about to move through an area of low-shear with very warm sea 
temperatures ahead. All systems are a go for Florence to rapidly 
intensify starting on Sunday and reach major hurricane strength by 
day 2. Florence is forecast to be a devastating category four when 
it reaches the coast of the United States. 


KEY MESSAGES: 

1. Confidence has grown since the last advisory on the forecast 
track for Florence. Florence is forecast to track towards the South 
Carolina and North Carolina border as a dangerous category four 
hurricane later this upcoming week. However, there is still a good 
chance that Florence might track further north. 

2. Interests along the entire U.S. East Coast but especially 
along the Southeastern coast should monitor the progress of Florence 
and begin precautions to protect life and property. 

3. Regardless of impacts, life-threatening surf and rip currents are 
beginning across Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast through next week. 

Forecaster Latteri

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