Tropical Storm Florence – Forecast Discussions
Florence – Public Advisories
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE CYCLONE DISCUSSION 40
HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2018
Environmental conditions are improving along the path of Florence as
she moves out of the dry air that have been inhabiting development
over the last day or so. There has been a recent burst of convection
along the center of circulation of the tropical storm which leads us
to believe Florence is once again about to be a hurricane, which
could happen at any moment now. The intensity remains the same since
the last advisory at 60 kt.
The general motion of Florence remains considerably slow at 270/5kt.
Florence is embedded between two high pressure systems which is
caused the steering currents to collapse. By all indications,
Florence is expected to move along a developing ridge towards the
west-northwest and then northwest with an increase in forward speed.
The ridge is responsible for the forecast track aiming Florence
right into the southeastern United States later this upcoming week.
The guidance for Florence seems to have gotten into better agreement
since 12Z and the forecast track lies between the GFS and FSSE.
As mentioned, Florence is expected to become a hurricane at any
moment overnight as it moves out of the hostile environment which
originally weakened the cyclone. Satellite data indicates Florence
is about to move through an area of low-shear with very warm sea
temperatures ahead. All systems are a go for Florence to rapidly
intensify starting on Sunday and reach major hurricane strength by
day 2. Florence is forecast to be a devastating category four when
it reaches the coast of the United States.
1. Confidence has grown since the last advisory on the forecast
track for Florence. Florence is forecast to track towards the South
Carolina and North Carolina border as a dangerous category four
hurricane later this upcoming week. However, there is still a good
chance that Florence might track further north.
2. Interests along the entire U.S. East Coast but especially
along the Southeastern coast should monitor the progress of Florence
and begin precautions to protect life and property.
3. Regardless of impacts, life-threatening surf and rip currents are
beginning across Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast through next week.